PML(N) ki Metro Bus ki Siyasat aur Intikhabi Muhim

Already rated favorite by many analysts, PMLN finally started their Intikhabi Muhim (electoral campaign) today from Mansehra. By all means, the Jalsa was a big hit with a large number of supporters waving PMLN's flag and chanting Nawaz Sharif - Nawaz Sharif. 

Kicking off his campaign with a little bit of drama when Nawaz Sharif asked his karkuns (workers) to remove the bullet proof glass from podium. My instant question to that was why is it there in the first place? Anyways, such gimmicks are played everywhere in the world so its really not a big concern. In his 30 mins speech Sharif talked mostly about motorways, metrobuses and expressways. What we did in the past and if given chance we'll do it in future. Surprisingly, he had nothing much to say except the ease of transportation he created in Lahore and in Punjab. 

Metro bus is like an Indian mega hit movie, released just before the end of the season, that sweeps all the major awards. I believe his entire intikhabi muhim will largely bank on this one particular project. Certainly, the former govt. of Punjab is all prepared to take full advantage of people's ignorance and unawareness toward many facts against metro bus. 

I will abide by the figures stated by former CM Punjab Shahbaz Sharif on the spending of Metro bus system which they claim to be PKR 30 billion; very proud on their achievement, time and again, Mian Sahab & his men have stated that it is an ideal project as it has been very successful in Turkey. Mian Sahab reminds me of Abraham Lincoln's famous quote: "You can fool some of the people all the time, and all the people some of the time, but you can not fool all the people all of the time".

Khadim-e-Aala do talk about how big success this project has been in Turkey but never mentioned its ground realities. The most eminent of all is that Turkey can afford it; they can even afford to launch a train that travels 2000 ft above the ground. Here is a slight comparison of my own:

Per Capita Income (PPP):

• Turkey - US$ 14,700; ranked 86 out of 226 countries
• Pakistan - US$ 2,800; ranked 173 out of 220 countries 

Health Expenditure: (% of GDP)

• Turkey - 6.7%; ranked 88 out of 188 countries
• Pakistan - 2.6%; ranked 181 out of 188 countries

Literacy:

• Turkey - 87.4%; ranked 132 out of 205 countries
• Pakistan - 54.9%; ranked 189 out of 205 countries

Industrial Production Growth Rate:

• Turkey - 9.2%; ranked 17 out of 164 countries
• Pakistan - 3%; ranked 99 out of 164 countries

After looking at the above indices, I feel embarrassed to have a luxurious Metro bus system in my country. Furthermore, there was no talk about the running cost of Metro system, according to an estimate, the Metro Bus System will incur minimum of PKR 1 billion annually. Personally, I believe cannibalization rate would be so high that it would hardly minimize any traffic. 75% of the population in Lahore uses private transportation and unfortunately I don't think we will see any substantial decline in this rate. The target market of Metro Bus system will be by and large the labor class which previously used the public transportation. So if 30 billion rupees were spent on transportation plus an additional billion every year that would ultimately bring no improvement in traffic system and only giving relief to few hundred travelers; I think its insane. 

Mian bradaran ruled 205,344km of Punjab with the population of 91.3 million people but unfortunately their entire siyasat and intikhabi muhim is based on the 27km and few thousand people of Lahore. And now that Mian Sahab has announced few more Metro bus system in Mansehra, Karachi and probably everywhere he will go; I can only pray to lord that "Dear Allah! Please save us from Metro bus service"! 

Other note able facts:

• Approximately 50% of Punjab infrastructure development budget is spent on the 27km long Metro bus service. This doesn't include any other bridge, underpass or roadways built in Lahore. 
• The annual budget did not include any plan for Metro bus service. Most of his projects were never discussed in assembly and were largely based on unilateral decision making. 
• Approximately 20% of Punjab's educational budget was spent on Free Laptop Scheme.
• Sasti roti scheme was scrapped after bank default of PKR 7.8 billion.
• Punjab govt only financed 12% of their expenditures through provincial tax revenues. They heavily relied on federal transfers.

References:

• http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?t=0&v=39&l=en
• http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/story/16050/the-economics-behind-the-lahore-metro-bus-service/
• http://www.saach.tv/2013/02/10/please-dont-solve-our-transport-problem-in-this-way/