Saturday, May 7, 2011

Decision making theory

If in school, at home, or elsewhere you were taught that in order to make a good decision you must take maximum of time; you were being fooled by your teacher, parents or uncle. Just like they were fooled by their  predecessors. 

How can consuming maximum of time lead us towards a wrong decision?
'One quality thought is better than thousands without meaning'
When one consume maximum of time in making decision - we think too much. And when we think too much, we think about the necessary stuff as well as the unnecessary stuff. Hence, taking too much of time can lead to a wrong decision and it may make us look like a jerk. 

P.S. Taking too much of time can lead us to a wrong decision does not mean that we should always make a quick speedy decision. All I am trying to explain you guys is that Time Consumption should not be a variable in making a good decision. 

If taking too much of time is not the right technique than what helps in making the best decisions?

COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS

Simple to sound - difficult to implement. I don't think I need to define CBA. However, its proper implementation is very important for a good decision making. 

  • Be precise with cost and benefits - list down all the costs and benefits. 
THE 'WHAT IF STATEMENT' versus 'IF THEN STATEMENT'

At some point in time, we all uses the 'What If Statement' and believe it or not every time we uses the WHAT IF statement we are putting ourselves into deeper confusion. 

What If I fail? (An open-ended question)
Will I be murdered? Will I be jailed? Will I be grounded? Will I lose my scholarship?

It is a self-created confusion. Hence, never, ever and ever use the 'what if' statement. Delete it from your dictionary RIGHT NOW! 

Use 'If then' statement instead! 

If I fail then I'll lose my scholarship.. As simple as that!! 

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Couple of months back a friend and I went for a dinner - he was a bit confused and needed my advice;

"Asad! I am thinking to get into a rental business. The concept and feasibility seems brilliant; I'll have to invest PKR. 250,000 from my own pocket but I don't know if I should go ahead with it or no? WHAT IF the plan fails?

I smiled and replied "IF the plan fails THEN you will lose your Rs. 250,000 rupees. You won't be sentenced for 5 years imprisonment. And If the plan succeeds - you'll earn an estimated profit of rupees 150,000 within first 3 years; you'll be able to explore your potential; an opportunity to enter in a new industry; opportunity to earn enormous profits in future"


The benefit side is heavier in the weigh meter - so go ahead with it. 


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Conclusion

For effective decision making one must remember the following rules:-

  • Do not take maximum of time as it may lead towards a wrong decision
  • Always do the cost-benefit analysis for decision making
  • Never use the what-if statement; Prefer the if-then statement instead

Lastly

Always remember that whatever decision you take - it is the best possible alternative available in that particular situation. Regardless the consequences; once you've taken a decision - stand by it and take the full responsibility of its consequences. Respect your decision and never regret over it!

Stay safe =)

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